LWD - October
October 30th 2008

Hey, October almost passed and I didn't write the montly report on LWD. I might make it bimontly, to produce less spam in the blog. You can read an intro for my Linux World Domination project in this May 2008 post.

As usual D2D means "days to domination" (the expected time for Windows/Linux shares to cross, counting from Feb 3, 2008), and DD2D means difference (increase/decrease) in D2D, with respect to last report. CLP means "current Linux Percent", as given by last logged data. The new datum DD means domination day (in YYYY-MM-DD format).

As a new feature, I am now fitting the curves (to predict Windows/Linux crossing) to first degree polynomials, but taking only the last N points so that the coefficient of regression is close to 1 (yes, I am being purposely unclear and arbitrary on this subject).

Project D2D DD2D DD CLP Confidence %
Einstein 882.1 +571.9 2011-03-31 35.17 (+0.27) 37.3
MalariaControl 6890.0 +6268.8 2027-09-10 12.26 (+0.06%) 0.3
POEM 3613.9 - 2018-09-21 9.81 (+0.05%) 0.4
QMC >10k - - 7.88 (+0.0%) -
Rosetta >10k - - 7.91 (+0.11%) -
SETI >10k - - 7.86 (+0.03) -
Spinhenge >10k - - 3.21 (+0.2%) -

OK, the data seems discouraging. The crossing day (DD) seems to be further away every month, instead of closer. Recall however that the only (half) reliable data are the current (and past) percents. All the rest is speculation, and the fits change wildly depending on the function used to make them, and the number of points fit.

Starting with this month's issue, I might post pictures of the evolution plots. Today I'm showing the plots for Einstein@home. Next month: Malaria@home.

Number of hosts percent evolution for Einstein@home (click to enlarge)

Accumulated credit percent evolution for Einstein@home (click to enlarge)

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